Monday, March 31, 2014

USA 1 - India 0

 

It is surprising to see Tamils who are surprised by India’s abstention vote at the UNHRC on Sri lanka. But it is pathetic to see Tamils not even able to express their disappointment at it. 

Tamils speaking to the Sunday Time here.

http://www.sundaytimes.lk/140330/columns/90860-90860.html

Sampanthan of TNA is quoted as saying  India “.. has to maintain some principles and we respect that.” He added, “India still has a role to play and we are confident it will address our needs.”.

And Suren Surendiran of GTF, followed up saying “It is diplomatically naïve and immature to interpret abstentions as being somehow supportive of the Government of Sri Lanka” 

Diaspora organizations self- restricting their operational space to match that of the constricted space of the TNA is bad. It is more so when India is about to overhaul its foreign policy initiatives under a new administration.

The policy announcements of India and the US are not secrets.  They have been expressed and demonstrated many a times before.

India's:

1) Sri Lanka should not go beyond 13A. It is okay if Sri Lanka is slow to implement the 13A.

2) There should not be any other international interference in the neighborhood.  

USA's:

1) There can not be a separate country.  

2) Will not take unilateral decisions against India’s wishes in the region.   

And both countries acknowledge and support the structural supremacy of the Sinhala nation over the Tamil nation.  

It is also factual that America along with India helped to destroy the LTTE. And willfully looked the other way during the genocidal onslaught. And both of them wanted the Srilankan government to implement the 13A in return for that help.  But when Sri Lanka gave them the finger on the 13A, America chose to act but India chose not to.

During the peace talks, Eric Solheim and others thought keeping India informed was sufficient. But India played the spoiler at the very end by encouraging Srilanka to go, literally, for the kill. It then proceeded to shield the regime from any outside investigations.  Coincidently, after the UN vote, in a pointed reference to India, US repeated the similar language as Norway that they had kept other stakeholders informed .

The marked difference this time is that US chose to express its disappointment openly over India’s vote .

According to another set of informed people, America took in the suggestion of India to explicitly refer to 13A in the resolution. Apparently this reference was also supported by the TNA.  Primary reason for the 13A reference in the resolution is to set the ceiling for a solution. NOT necessarily to “encourage” Sri Lanka to implement it as it is made to sound.  

For whatever its worth, this blog has been repeating about how Tamils have become an unnecessary variable in this game. I wrote

“Tamil discourse is now juxtaposed between the likes of ever compromising TNA on one hand and never relenting Tamilnet on the other. “

This binary mindset, that you have to either fully support something or oppose it entirely was again at display during the UN resolution debate. There was limited debate about the options, both pro and con, available.   A collective opposition to the references of 13A and LLRC while welcoming an international investigation would have been prudent.  Someone should have ensured Delhi tipped its hand much earlier than it had been doing at the UN.  

So at the end, India chose to keep Sri Lanka even if it meant losing Tamilnadu.

repeating from the same past blog post,

“Only when Eelam Tamil problem becomes a national security issue for India, would there be any direct intervention. This is why a stronger and inseparable relationship with the people and leaders of TamilNadu is a predestined safety valve for Eelam Tamils. “

American policy makers have been frustrated with India in recent times. Frustrated because  India has not fully embraced America as the strategic partner in the regional affairs.  Indian officials are still suspicious of the US motives.  

I shared this article with a friend when it came out last December with the words “ Why US would continue to put pressure on India in multilateral forums like UN.”

The author, @MohanCRaja, asked  “that New Delhi discard its traditional impulse to view Asia through the anti-Western prism. The idea of Asian solidarity against the West, developed during the colonial era, has long been presumed to be a fundamental principle of India's foreign policy.”

and then concluded

“Managing these regional contradictions will be a major challenge for India's Asia policy in the coming years. Non-alignment, strategic autonomy and Asian solidarity might be attractive slogans for some, but offer no guidance for the conduct of India's foreign policy in East Asia and the Middle East. To cope with the new geopolitical imperatives, India must learn to deal with Asia on its own terms and stop imposing its ideological preferences on the region.”

(Note: Reminded of an old Tom Clancy Novel, Debt of Honor.  re Asian solidarity. Truth is stranger than fiction indeed.)

From the previous blog post, March Madness. is it USA Vs India

But would the US push through the resolution if India chooses to sit on the fence?

Answer is now known.

America’s dealing with India has been forceful.  Whether it is the diplomat’s issue , or about Bangladesh, and now on Sri Lanka.

[ India, US at odds over Bangladesh policy

India-US chasm opens over Bangladesh

America wants to force India out of the sideline, non-committal, backdoor diplomacy. It wants India to take similar positions as the US.  America intends this at the new administration in Delhi which  will overhaul its foreign policy for certain.  But  many Tamil activists still continue to see the US & India as the same collective they were in 2009.  Principally that still remains true. But the fissures have been visible.

Few Tamil Nadu organizations like the  May 17th, despite their best intentions and noble goals, squandered precious time and efforts on Anti American rhetoric and taking over KFC’s. Repeating from the previous blog post wrote weeks before UN voting.

Tamil Nadu activists have chosen to protest against the American resolution  because it does not include charges of Genocide.  While that is reasonable request, protesting it, misses the tree for the wood.  Tamil Nadu’s immediate focus should be in getting Delhi to take a public position within the next few weeks. Letting Delhi wait until the voting time, is a strategic mistake by the Tamil Nadu brethren.  Tamil Nadu activists should first mobilize towards getting Delhi to openly support an International Investigation mechanism.  Without that, protesting the resolution for what it does not include is premature and above all not prudent. It only helps Delhi’s agenda of deflection.   

Would Tamilnadu brethren make wise choices in the upcoming elections and hold their politicians accountable so that India does not stop the OHCHR investigations even before it starts?  

Monday, March 24, 2014

The Lord Business

 


Lets just be honest. The current UN resolution as it stands will not bring impactful change to the Eelam Tamils.

What it does do though is to keep a door ajar. It is a sensible beachhead strategy.  It is so because that is where the final act will play out. UN is where it should start so that it is there it can end.  

ReSolution. No Solution

It becomes problematic when few tend to market the resolution as a solution. Not coincidentally, they happen to be the same voices that said the same thing about 13 amendment.  

Tamils cant afford to be distracted by the UN theatrics if Twittersphere is any indication.   An impactful Tamil strategy must be at play in Tamilnadu.  For the beachhead that is the UN, the reinforcement is to come from Tamilnadu.  

If that does not materialize, the UN effort would, no doubt, go to waste.  

UNHRC options will not bring about a structural change in Sri Lanka.  But TamilNadu is capable of producing such change in Sri Lanka and through UN.  As things stand now, a game changer move can only originate from TamilNadu.

As repeated often in this blog, the current socio, economic, and political changes TamilNadu is undergoing is fundamental.  Student protests are only a symptomatic expression of a systemic shift. 

It is Eelam Tamils duty to ensure this change culminates in our favor to bring about  meaningful and structural changes in the Island of Sri Lanka.  

So how do you land in the UN, do battle in Sri Lanka and get reinforcement from Tamilnadu?

It is expected that the next Indian federal government will have to have TamilNadu support to exist.  Many are predicting BJP to have enough of a majority. But the likely scenario is BJP or a loose coalition of third parties will have to be at the mercy of the current CM Jayalalitha.  And she has endorsed a strong position as a party election platform.  

A series of recent articles in the US press have highlighted the importance as well (1)(2).  

Unlike the Congresse’s toothless foreign policy, a BJP government will have a more forceful policy.  With that pending change, US will not take unilateral initiatives in the region. Yet, it has shown it will take leadership in multilateral bodies cornering India into action.

My prediction is that should a BJP government come to power, they will choose Sri Lanka as the test case to prove their hegemonic policies to other regional countries as well as to the foe, China and to the “friend” US. 

One should take serious note of Yaswant Sinha’s statement in Chennai two weeks ago

There will be personality change in Modi-led govt: Yashwant Sinha

 “ "We need to just whisper in the ears of Rajapaksa that he needs to listen else face the consequences," he said. He dismissed the view that China will occupy India's strategic place in Sri Lanka if New Delhi took a strong stance against the island nation. "If America can have Monroe Doctrine in southern hemisphere, we can have one in South Asia," he said, adding India cannot live in "perpetual fear" of China taking its place in Lanka. "Like (Lord) Hanuman, we must realise our strength and we can also cross over the Palk Strait not with guns but with roses," he said”

( Note: I hadn’t seen his comment re Palk Strait when I wrote about Tamils walking on water. But I am amused by the Hanuman comment. )

This comes from a senior leader of the BJP party who was both a finance minister and a foreign minister of India.   

A sweeping win by AIDMK and BJP’s reliance on that party, and an OHCHR report next year could be the perfect storm for Eelam tamils to turn the corner.   

It will be an amazing delivery of poetic justice should it come from two powerful Tamil women. One as a head of OHCHR and another as a head of TamilNadu.  What a fantastic testimony would that be for the Vanni mindset and to Periyar.

So using the UN resolution only as a tactical step of a strategy, Tamils should continue to push to make the language stronger and not dismiss the resolution.  Should a resolution pass with components of a OHCHR investigation intact, Tamils in their home turfs will hopefully work on other pieces.

1) Eelam Tamils should continue to insist ( as demonstrated in Geneva this time through NPC members Aananthi and Sivajilingam ) that elected members act as representatives and not as lawyers nitpicking the merits of a case.  Pseudo intellectualism at this juncture is missing the tree for the woods.

2)  The impressive articulation of TNPF leader Gajen and Civil society member Guruparan on the weaknesses of the resolution should reach the people so they are not fed false hope of delivery of justice.   But I also hope both of them do more to frame the discussions as pro strong resolution and don't get trapped into an anti resolution messaging.  

3) Tamils in Tamil Nadu should ensure that notoriously fickle TN politics does not go off tracks post elections.Congress and DMK have paid dearly in Tamilnadu for their 2009 disastrous inaction. And Chief Minister Jeyalalitha is determined to extract more.  All Congress leaders are running scared not wanting to run in the elections. Tamils should ensure CM Jeyalalitha keeps her election promises.

4) Tamils everywhere should ensure new government in Delhi thinks outside of the 13A .  The ominous reference to 13A in the resolution and TNA leaderships pussyfooting around it will not get us out of this mess.  If Delhi to whisper in Rajapakse’s ear as Sinha says, I would rather it be the dialog from the all time classic movie pulp fiction.

"The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of the darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy My brothers. And you will know I am the Lord when I lay My vengeance upon you."  

That is a whisper that the Srilankan state needs to hear but hear it loud and clear. And that is a lord business Tamils can get behind.  

----------------------------------------------------------

here is the Pulp Fiction scene in Youtube. starting at 1 min.

(1) What Sri Lanka reveals about Indian democracy support

http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/19/what-sri-lanka-reveals-about-indian-democracy-support/h4s7

(2) The Indian Elections and Indian Foeign Policy: What Tamil Nadu parties have to Say

For those interesting in learning more about UN’s role in deciding of people’s Self determination 2 recommended readings below

Self Determination in the Post 9/11 Era by Elizabeth Chadwick

The responsibility of outside powers for acts of secessionist entities by Stefan Talmon

Monday, March 17, 2014

Can Tamils walk on water?

 


If one were to read Dayan Jayatilleka  last week, one might think so.  

The geo strategic advantage of Tamils he highlights needs further characterization.  Lets follow Dayan’s boxing analogy.

Eelam tamils have been forced into the boxing ring for a heavyweight match not of our choosing. We have been facing a genocidal state. We had to learn how to punch above our weight class. and learn quick.  Learn we did. We have been knocked down in many a rounds. But never knocked out.  And we never will be.      

We have had our share of mentors. They taught us the value of justice.  They told us how to chase after our love: Freedom.

and she's mine, she's mine, she's mine, all mine

yeah she's mine, mine, mine, mmm

i was thrown before the court of canes

tossed my soul to the furnace flames

where all my heros had been slain, exiled, or put in prison

because they rose above the mess

and because their power posed a threat

and because they spoke of something else

when everybody else didn't

We can sing this proud.  We also learned it is not all about throwing punches.  It is about the footwork. It is not about the size of the person but about the stamina.  

We have had great mentors and we have had crazy ones.  It is those crazies, that the Sinhala state need to watch out for. We, the crazies, are not burdened by the trapping of a state. We “think different”.

"Here's To The Crazy Ones. The misfits. The rebels. The trouble-makers. The round pegs in the

square holes. The ones who see things differently. They're not fond of rules, and they have

no respect for the status-quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify, or vilify them.

About the only thing you can't do is ignore them. Because they change things. They push the

human race forward. And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius.

Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world - are the ones who DO !" -



And we are now learning how to transcend the small, shallow, body of water called the Palk Strait.  So indeed, one day, we will walk on water.  And that is the day, you, the racist, Genocidal Sri Lankan state, will get knocked out.  And both the Sinhalese and the Tamils will rejoice.  

... she's mine, she's mine, she's mine, all mine

yeah she's mine, mine, mine, mmm

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